I've seen Birdman and it's...interesting, but it wouldn't surprise me if it won best picture. It's apparently going to be a very close race.
![hickey-datalab-oscarfinal-1](https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/hickey-datalab-oscarfinal-1.png?w=610&h=299)
What that all means is that this is historically close.
Read more here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-race-for-best-picture-is-among-the-closest-in-oscar-history/
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