I don't really like awards ceremonies, but I like awards, if that makes sense.
I've seen Birdman and it's...interesting, but it wouldn't surprise me if it won best picture. It's apparently going to be a very close race.
What that all means is that this is historically close.
Read more here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-race-for-best-picture-is-among-the-closest-in-oscar-history/